Feb 2008 - RESOLUTIONS & PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEW YEAR

[Buzz Kanter]

RESOLUTIONS & PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEW YEAR

Say hello to 2008 (this February issue is our first one on sale in the new year). We each have our own ways of welcoming the New Year, ranging from making our New Year’s Resolution list (again), promising ourselves to get to the gym more regularly (again), or pulling down an old calendar and replacing it with a current one. And magazine editors fight the urge to predict, in print, some of the more significant events of the coming year.

On a personal level, I’m going to work hard to drop 10 pounds before leaving for Daytona Bike Week in March, and another 10 before I head out to Sturgis in August. I’m going to finally get my project dual-carb Panhead engine rebuilt (please, Vito) and back on the road this spring. I’m going to sell that little Harley 250 Sprint project that’s been quietly rusting in peace. I’ve had it for two or three years, and I have to finally admit I’m not likely to get around to fixing it up. And I’m going to ride my Harley Ultra more this year. At least enough to pass the 70,000-mile mark on its odometer.

On a business level, we’re always working hard to keep American Iron Magazine’s editorial approach up to, or even ahead of, the times. As the popularity of choppers slides and that of baggers increases, our editorial coverage -- both feature bikes and tech -- will lead the market. Look for more real-world bikes, tech (from basic to advanced levels), and product reviews of bikes, clothes, and gear. So, all you backyard builders and customizers, consider this an invite to submit photos of your bikes for possible features in these pages.

I like these planned changes. I’ve always viewed a bike more from a functional approach than an artistic one. My personal tastes (and ownership) lie mostly in roadworthy classics and mild bobbers, plus the one modern bike I bought myself as a 50th birthday present -- a hot rod 2000 Ultra. And now that the hot topic seems to be baggers, I realized that most of the bikes I’ve owned for the last decade and a half have been baggers: Knucklehead, Panhead, Evo FXR, and now a Twin Cam Ultra. I just like being able to carry stuff with me when I ride. Who knew I’d be a trendsetter back in 1995, when I first strapped a set of black leather saddlebags on my 1947 Knucklehead. It makes sense that more Harley riders are discovering the joys of having on-board storage, and that the trend is now called baggers. I guess I was way ahead of my time. That’s a first!

Yes, baggers will be the big story for 2008. I also feel the industry’s consolidation will affect us all: in a good way if we’re buying, and a not so good way if we’re selling. Prices of new and used Harleys will drop to the lowest level in years as the supply grows and the demand slows down. I predict Harley dealers will be happy to sell new bikes at MSRP, and many will sell at discount prices we’ve not seen in 20 years. But, I’m afraid this is going to be disruptive to the strong and steady growth we have enjoyed in our industry. Is this softening in demand for new bikes a short- or long-term trend? My best guess is that it’s a good thing for the enthusiasts looking for deals, but a challenge to the manufacturers and suppliers.

I’m also predicting a shift in many of the motorcycle events. I believe a lot of riders will skip some of the larger national events, preferring the closer, smaller, regional biker events. The big ones are just too expensive and too far to travel for most enthusiasts to justify. The local events are more affordable, and easy to get to and from for most working people. I predict 2008 will be the first year in decades of significant Darwinism for the motorcycle industry. The smart companies and event promoters will figure a way to adapt, survive, and prosper, while others won’t. Simply put, the real enthusiasts can no longer be expected to keep shelling out all that money. I wonder what this industry will look like at the start of 2009, don’t you?

Ride safe, ride smart, have fun.

Buzz Kanter
PUBLISHER/EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
www.aimag.com Best Selling Harley magazine